People’s Daily Overseas Edition Chinese rhythm Chinese economic development-windjview

People’s Daily Overseas Edition: China economic development "Chinese rhythm" insist "transformation" does not relax the "empty" China Seoul, the four corners of the world economic development "Chinese rhythm" (MarketWatch) reporter Wang Junling "13th Five-Year" at the beginning of the year, China economic concern. The day before, the National Bureau of statistics released the Chinese manufacturing business PMI and non manufacturing index in January 2016 (PMI). Since the index fell to 49.4, the lowest since 2012 August, the domestic and foreign once again focused on the downward pressure on China’s economy, the "singing empty" China’s argument seems to have a new basis. In this regard, experts pointed out that the bottom of the PMI, on the one hand affected by seasonal factors, on the other hand reflects the throes of China’s economic restructuring and upgrading process. But it should be pointed out that China’s economic development has a "Chinese rhythm", the pace of China’s new and old power transformation and the long-term good trend will not change because of the noise of the outside world. A reason for the January PMI reborn price declines, the Senior National Bureau of Statistics Survey Center Services Statistics Division Zhao Qinghe believes there are three main reasons: one is from the point of view of historical data, affected by factors such as the new year’s day and Spring Festival approaching, every January manufacturing activities are reduced, the market supply and demand slowdown; two is in the current resolve excess capacity and inventory stage, some companies take the initiative to reduce production, reduce inventory; three is the recent domestic economic growth continued to slow, the overall weak demand, import and export will be affected. In fact, compared with the short-term factors, people in the face of PMI again down, more in the minds of the emergence of "excess capacity", "zombie enterprise" has been entrenched in the Chinese economy over the haze". So, how should we view the throes of China’s economic transformation? Tianjin University of Finance Economics School of Economics Professor Cong Yi in an interview with this reporter pointed out that excess capacity is indeed one of the important source of Chinese downtown pressure on the economy, but if this will be overcapacity as "great scourges", even to the whole economy "Chinese knot theory", is obviously biased. "It should be noted that there are a lot of high quality production capacity in excess capacity, only because of economic cyclical fluctuations and the early stimulus policy and other factors caused by the mismatch between supply and demand and become relatively surplus. Therefore, excess capacity can not be equated with high pollution, high energy consumption of backward production capacity, the latter is to resolutely eliminate." Cong Yi said. Go to the old and new education anyone Cong Yi view is similar to that of the Ministry of international economic and technical cooperation center director Gong Xiaofeng also pointed out that in the 500 kinds of industrial products, there are 220 kinds of China is first in the world, although in some areas of technology is relatively backward, but there is a strong international competitive advantage in highway, railway, port and communications infrastructure. "The adjustment of economic structure and the supply side reforms, is to make the quality of excess capacity to clearing, and our country in this respect there is a great consumptive space. On the one hand, with the rise of "big Wuhan", Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan, Chengdu Chongqing and other manufacturing cities, the infrastructure construction in the central and western regions has also been discussed

人民日报海外版:中国经济发展有“中国节奏”   咬定“转型”不放松 任尔东西南北“空”   中国经济发展有“中国节奏”(市场观察)   本报记者 王俊岭   “十三五”开局之年,中国经济备受关注。日前,国家统计局发布了2016年1月中国制造业采购经理指数和非制造业商务活动(PMI)指数。由于指数回落至49.4,创2012年8月份以来新低,海内外再次将目光聚焦于中国经济的下行压力,此前“唱空”中国的论调似乎又有了新的依据。对此,专家指出,PMI的探底一方面受季节性等因素影响,另一方面反映出中国经济结构转型升级过程中的阵痛。但需要指出的是,中国经济发展有“中国节奏”,中国新旧动力转换的步伐和长期向好的趋势不会因为外界的嘈杂之声而改变。   脱胎换骨有代价   对于1月份PMI走低的原因,国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河认为主要有三大原因:一是从历史数据上看,受元旦及春节临近等因素影响, 每年1月份制造业生产活动大多有所减少,市场供需放缓;二是在当前化解过剩产能和去库存阶段,部分企业主动减少产量、降低库存;三是近期国内外经济增长持续放缓,需求总体偏弱,进出口受到一定影响。   事实上,相比于短期性因素,人们在面对PMI再度走低时,脑海中更多浮现的还是“过剩产能”“僵尸企业”等一直盘踞在中国经济上空的“阴霾”。那么,究竟应该如何看待中国经济的转型阵痛呢?   天津财经大学经济学院教授丛屹在接受本报记者采访时指出,过剩产能确实是当前中国经济下行压力的重要来源之一,但如果据此就将过剩产能视为“洪水猛兽”,甚至给整个中国经济“下结论”,则显然有失偏颇。   “需要注意的是,过剩产能当中有很多优质产能,只是由于经济周期性波动与前期刺激政策等因素造成供需不匹配而变得相对过剩。因此,过剩产能并不能和高污染、高能耗的落后产能划等号,后者是要坚决淘汰的。”丛屹表示。   去旧育新有定力   与丛屹的观点类似,工信部国际经济技术合作中心主任龚晓峰也指出,在500种工业产品里,中国有220种是全球第一,虽然在某些领域技术还相对落后,但在公路、铁路、港口和通讯等基础设施领域却有很强的国际竞争优势。   “进行经济结构调整和供给侧改革,就是要让优质的过剩产能得以出清,而我国在这方面还有很大消纳的空间。一方面,随着‘大武汉’‘长株潭’‘成渝’等制造业城市圈的兴起,中西部地区基础设施建设还有很大需求;另一方面,东部地区基础设施也不是没有提升空间,例如仅京津冀地区就有10万亿―20万亿元的需求规模。还应看到,‘一带一路’沿线国家大多基础设施薄弱,其市场潜力不容小觑。”丛屹分析。   传统引擎有序退场,新兴动力正在增强。在去旧育新的路上,中国不缺乏亮眼的风景。数据显示,2015年,中国造船完工量、新接订单量、手持订单量分别占世界市场份额的38.3%、34.0%和36.2%,三大指标市场份额保持世界领先;规模以上电子信息制造业增加值同比增长10.5%,高于工业平均水平4.4个百分点;全年网上零售额38773亿元,比上年增长33.3%……   “人们常常反思过去的刺激性政策,但相比于政策本身,执行过程中对原有规划的偏离显然更值得注意。现在,中国必须保持发展定力、踏准正确节奏,将目前正确的改革路线走稳走好,不能被短期数据波动所吓倒,过度重视增长而失去对结构的管控。可以说,‘转型阵痛’并不是件坏事。”丛屹强调。   稳步发展增信心   尽管中国转型的阵痛让海内外一些观察者们心生忧虑,更有一些机构不断抛出“中国经济硬着陆”“中国经济崩溃”等“权威”言论,但更多的全球经济参与主体最终还是用实际行动选择了中国。   随着各公司进入年报披露季,不久前普华永道针对全球近千家公司首席执行官(CEO)做了一系列调查。其中一份报告显示,69%的受访CEO对2015年在华收入增长抱有信心,而当被问及对未来3―5年在华收入增长是否有信心时,高达93%的受访CEO给出了肯定的答案。   与此同时,商务部数据显示,2015年,全国设立外商投资企业26575家,同比增长11.8%;实际使用外资金额7813.5亿元人民币,同比增长6.4%。12月当月,全国新设外商投资企业更是同比增长17.9%。   美国布鲁金斯学会此前在一篇研究报告中亦指出,目前中国的经济消息大部分是积极的。中国GDP增速虽然有所下降,但就业依然强劲,尤其是需求依然旺盛的劳动力市场。该报告称,华尔街和全球其他市场无需过度担忧中国经济增速放缓而带来的波动,从长远来看,中国需要从此前的投资拉动转变成更可持续的发展模式。   来源:人民日报海外版 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: